The forecast calculation is the most complex and perhaps the most important calculation in the application. It offers the possibility to establish a realistic expectation whether the package of measures is sufficient to achieve the set goals.
When creating a new measure, you are first asked to enter a name and choose whether you want to calculate the measure based on expected or actual values. If you want to calculate the effect of a measure on the basis of an expected value, for example for a project, or when drawing up a CO2 budget for the coming year, you must of course also enter the expected value.
Following this, you can choose whether the calculations will be made with a relative effect or an absolute effect.
The advantage of calculating with a relative effect is that it can be used if no exact values are known and the effect applies directly to several gauges.
An absolute effect is easier to envision. If a diesel car is phased out, you know how many liters this saves per year. If an electric car comes back for that, you can also easily determine how much kWh needs to be added.
An absolute effect can only be calculated with reference to a single gauge. Several gauges with effects can always be linked to a measure. A "phasing out a diesel car" measure can therefore also be linked to several meters of different entities in the case of absolute effects. In such cases the effect will be determined per fuel gauge per business unit.
You can add effects in the next step. To do this, first select the gauges on which the measure has an effect. If desired, you can add an additional effect to another gauge selection later. For example, someone is going to drive an electric car, which reduces diesel consumption, but increases electricity consumption.
When calculating with absolute effects, the principle is comparable as described below for the relative effects. The difference is that in that case one gauge is chosen at a time to which one or more effects are linked. The effect is expressed in an absolute number such as amount of liters, kWh, m3 of gas. It is always possible to add additional gauges with their own effects.
An effect can be specified after the gauge selection. For effects that can be divided over several timeframes, a value can also be added per timeframe. Note that the values are then inserted cumulatively as also explained in the application.
The system asks if an effect needs to be added. A gauge selection can then be started again.
The effect of the measure is immediately visualized by graphic below in the screen.
How is the measure graph calculated and how is this visualized as a forecast line?
The system calculates an absolute number based on all entered effects. These are added together in the measure graph, so that it becomes clear how much improvement has been achieved, in theory, by the total package of measures over time.
For the prediction line, the package of improvements is always subtracted from the last known historical values. In this way, a forecast is made. As soon as a timeframe has ended, the historical value will be tracked.
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